Sequential time-window learning with approximate Bayesian computation: an application to epidemic forecasting.

The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more sophisticated mathematical techniques for analyzing epidemic data and generating reliable forecasts. In this work, we propose a framework for analyzing complex dynamical systems by dividing the data in consecutive time-windows to be separately analyzed. We fit parameters for each time-window through an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm, and the posterior distribution of parameters obtained for one window is used as the prior distribution for the next window. This Bayesian learning approach is tested with data on COVID-19 cases in multiple countries and is shown to improve ABC performance and to produce good short-term forecasting. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07865-x.

What Do We Need to Know About Musculoskeletal Manifestations of COVID-19?: A Systematic Review.

¼: COVID-19 is a disease that is challenging science, health-care systems, and humanity. An astonishingly wide spectrum of manifestations of multi-organ damage, including musculoskeletal, can be associated with SARS-CoV-2. ¼: In the acute phase of COVID-19, fatigue, myalgia, and arthralgia are the most common musculoskeletal symptoms. ¼: Post-COVID-19 syndrome is a group of signs and symptoms that are present for >12 weeks. The associated musculoskeletal manifestations are fatigue, arthralgia, myalgia, new-onset back pain, muscle weakness, and poor physical performance. ¼: Data on COVID-19 complications are growing due to large absolute numbers of cases and survivors in these 2 years of the pandemic. Additional musculoskeletal manifestations encountered are falls by the elderly, increased mortality after hip fracture, reduced bone mineral density and osteoporosis, acute sarcopenia, rhabdomyolysis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, muscle denervation atrophy, fibromyalgia, rheumatological disease triggering, septic arthritis, adhesive capsulitis, myositis, critical illness myopathy, onset of latent muscular dystrophy, osteonecrosis, soft-tissue abscess, urticarial vasculitis with musculoskeletal manifestations, and necrotizing autoimmune myositis. ¼: A wide range of signs and symptoms involving the musculoskeletal system that affect quality of life and can result in a decrease in disability-adjusted life years. This powerful and unpredictable disease highlights the importance of multimodality imaging, continuing education, and multidisciplinary team care to support preventive measures, diagnosis, and treatment.